Moody's Corporation (MCO)

Moody's AI recession model shows 49% odds of a U.S. recession, just 1 percentage point below the 50% threshold that has preceded every recession in 80 years of backtested data. The February data doesn't account for the U.S.-Iran war, which has disrupted 20% of global oil production and pushed oil prices above $100 a barrel. With weak job growth (92,000 jobs shed), revised-down GDP (0.7%), and elevated inflation, the model is likely to soon cross the 50% threshold, signaling an imminent recession.

The Motley Fool•Johnny Rice

Apr 1

Recession fears are mounting as rising oil prices and overvalued market metrics signal potential economic downturn. Goldman Sachs forecasts a 30% recession probability within 12 months, while Moody's predicts 49% odds. The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio and Buffett Indicator both suggest market overvaluation. However, investors should note that historically, markets have always recovered from recessions, and downturns can present buying opportunities.

The Motley Fool•Katie Brockman

Mar 29

Moody's and Pool Corp have experienced significant stock price declines (16% and 11% respectively year-to-date) despite strong fundamentals. Moody's reported 13% revenue growth and 39% earnings growth in Q4 2025, while Pool Corp faces cyclical headwinds but maintains a secure dividend with a 2.4% yield. Both companies have consistent dividend growth track records and are considered buying opportunities for long-term investors.

The Motley Fool•Daniel Sparks

Mar 25

With economists predicting a 25-49% chance of recession in the next 12 months, the article recommends building a 3-6 month emergency fund, researching quality stocks to buy at discounted prices during market downturns, and avoiding panic selling. The author cautions that recession predictions are often inaccurate, citing 2023's failed recession forecast followed by a 23% S&P 500 surge.

The Motley Fool•Katie Brockman

Mar 23

The S&P 500 recently formed a bearish breakdown below its 200-day moving average, a pattern last seen in March 2025. Historical data suggests the index could decline 17% from its January 2026 peak of 6,797, implying 13% further downside from current levels. However, the index has historically recovered quickly, averaging 16% gains over the following year. Investors are advised to prepare cash for buying opportunities rather than attempting to time the market.

The Motley Fool•Trevor Jennewine

Mar 22

Berkshire Hathaway's longest-held investments in Coca-Cola, American Express, and Moody's are generating exceptional returns through dividend income alone, doubling the initial investment every 21-30 months. These companies benefit from strong competitive advantages and consistent dividend growth, with yields on cost of 63%, 45%, and 41% respectively. New CEO Greg Abel has committed to maintaining these 'forever' holdings.

The Motley Fool•Sean Williams

Mar 20

The S&P 500 is trading at historically expensive valuations (CAPE ratio of 39.2) while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven oil prices above $100 per barrel. Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi warns that sustained high oil prices could trigger a recession, with a machine learning model showing 49% odds of recession in the next 12 months. Analysts predict potential 10-22% declines in the S&P 500 if oil prices remain elevated, with historical data showing average 32% declines during recessions.

The Motley Fool•Trevor Jennewine

Mar 19

Berkshire Hathaway's investment in Moody's, acquired during its 2000 spinoff from Dun & Bradstreet, has become highly profitable through dividends. With a cost basis of $248 million for nearly 25 million shares now worth $11 billion, the position has appreciated 4,400%. Most impressively, Berkshire generated $93 million in dividends from Moody's in 2025 alone, achieving a 41.2% yield on cost basis, demonstrating the power of long-term dividend growth investing.

The Motley Fool•Jennifer Saibil

Mar 14

Greg Abel, Warren Buffett's successor at Berkshire Hathaway, identified nine core holdings that represent over 60% of the company's stock portfolio and plans to hold them indefinitely. These include Apple, American Express, Coca-Cola, Moody's, and five Japanese trading houses (Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Itochu, Sumitomo, and Marubeni). Abel expects limited trading activity in these positions going forward.

The Motley Fool•Adam Levy

Mar 11

Berkshire Hathaway generated $816 million in dividends from Coca-Cola and $479 million from American Express in 2025 alone. These two longest-held positions, owned for nearly 40 years, demonstrate the power of dividend compounding with yield-on-cost of 65% for Coca-Cola and 44% for American Express, far exceeding current market yields.

The Motley Fool•Jennifer Saibil

Mar 10